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The external background at the opening of trading on Monday is controversial. Oil prices continue to rally last week, and sentiment on global stock markets has slightly worsened.
Trading on the US stock exchanges on Friday ended with the growth of three major indexes by 0.5-1.1%, led by cyclical shares. The positive for the market was the data on the unexpected growth of retail sales in September by 0.7% mom, contrary to expectations of a decline. Besides, this week the quarterly reporting season started quite successfully with the results of the largest banks. As a result, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week near short-term resistance, but still have the potential for medium-term growth and return to August peaks.
Futures on the S&P 500 index in the morning are losing about 0.3% as part of the correction. This week in the US, the season of quarterly reports will continue, data on the housing market will be published, as well as preliminary indicators of business activity for October. On Monday, data on the country’s industrial production will be released.
Trading in Europe on Friday ended with an increase in the Euro Stoxx 50 index by 0.8%. This week it is worth noting especially the inflation data for the UK, Germany and the Eurozone, as well as preliminary estimates of business activity in the region.
At the auction in Asia in the morning there is no uniform dynamics. Japanese Nikkei 225 added 1.6%. The Australian S & P / ASX is up 0.25%. Chinese indices are falling within 2.5%. The key data on the state of the PRC economy released this morning were mostly disappointing and showed, in particular, a slowdown in GDP growth in the 3rd quarter from 7.9% to 4.9% y / y, and industrial production – from 5. 3% to 3.1% YoY, worse than forecasted. The only positive signal was the acceleration of retail sales growth from 2.5% to 4.4% y / y.
The upcoming Brent and WTI futures are up about 1% in the morning after a similar rise on Friday. Prices for the international variety rose to another high since 2018 above $ 86, and for the American one reached a peak since 2014 of $ 83.71.The nearest areas of significant resistance for quotations are located at $ 87 and $ 86, respectively. The market is dominated by fears of limited supply in the context of increased demand for oil during the energy crisis, as well as the recovery of the global economy, which ensures the preservation of upward potential in the coming week.
